Super prosperity for photovoltaic to come in 2023

Solar panels: Capacity to follow up demand, integration rate improvement

In 2023, the module production capacity will be up, and the integration rate of integrated enterprises will be further improved. Component production capacity is asset-light, the construction period is short, there is generally no supply problem, and it can respond relatively quickly to changes in demand. By the end of 2021, the module production capacity will reach 465.2GW. Neutral expectations are that it will reach around 570GW and 700GW by the end of 2022 and 2023, respectively, with a year-on-year growth. Against this background, for integrated module companies, the integration rate is expected to further increase.

Inverter: Accelerate production capacity expansion, and increase shipment expectations

Since 2022Q2, the inverter has still shown a high boom, the reasons include the recovery of the epidemic, the improvement of IGBT, and the superposition of European households, especially the outbreak of demand for household energy storage. While companies are accelerating production expansion, considering the flexibility of production capacity, inverter companies have raised their shipment expectations one after another. Each company’s shipment growth rate in 2023 is expected to be at the level of 60%-100%. At the same time, the structure is further inclined to energy storage. , the proportion of energy storage profits continued to increase.

Domestic and foreign situation

Since 2020, domestic and foreign countries have driven the growth of installed capacity from top to bottom, improving the certainty and growth of the industry's long-term space. We will increase global power generation by 2.5% in 2020-2030 and 2.0% in 2030-2060; gradually withdraw coal power and thermal power, and develop hydropower, nuclear power, and biomass on a small scale; mainly develop energy systems with wind and solar energy storage as the mainstay . According to the current conservative planning goals of various countries, it is estimated that by 2030 and 2060, the conservative new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world will be more than 1000GW and more than 2400GW;

HFCN believes that photovoltaic LCOE can currently achieve a power generation cost of less than 5 cents in most parts of the world, and it is currently 30 cents in China. The parity we calculated is based on the electricity price of 5,500 kcal coal before 2019 under the condition of less than US$80 per ton all the year round. At present, the foreign market of coal is 400 US dollars, and the price of natural gas in Europe is not to be mentioned. LNG from the United States, the Middle East, Australia and other places also suit. Now photovoltaic power generation is not cheap, but the era of cheap. Therefore, early installation of photovoltaics benefits early.